U.S. Tariffs: An Advantage for Fréchette?

Québec’s provincial election campaign begins today in a political environment that has shifted dramatically over the past few days.

The breakdown of trade negotiations between Canada and the United States, followed by the introduction of new U.S. tariffs, has pushed the economy, jobs and the relationship with Washington back to the centre of the political discourse. For Québec’s political parties setting out on the campaign trail, that could significantly alter their strategies that have been months in the making.

Christine Fréchette was the first to take advantage of this new reality. She convened her Cabinet, brought together the leaders of the main political parties and key business stakeholders, and quickly announced support programs for affected companies. The message is clear: faced with an external crisis, the Premier wants to be seen as active, engaged, and in control.

The opposition parties, meanwhile, are trying to frame the situation differently. Charles Milliard, leader of the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP), has argued that the government failed to adequately prepare for a threat that had been looming for some time. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Québécois (PQ), has accused Québec of being too passive in its dealings with Washington. Éric Duhaime, leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec, is calling for a lighter tax burden rather than targeted support programs, while Ruba Ghazal, co-spokesperson for Québec solidaire, is placing greater emphasis on economic diversification and protecting jobs.

Despite these efforts, the bigger challenge for the opposition parties lies elsewhere.

Before the tariff crisis, the campaign looked set to focus heavily on the record of a CAQ government that has been in power for eight years. For Fréchette’s opponents, the strategy was relatively straightforward: continuously draw voters’ attention back to that record and its shortcomings.

The crisis with the United States could change the central question voters are asked to consider as they head to the polls.

The comparison to the 2025 federal election is hard to ignore. For months, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives had built their strategy around the record of the Liberal government. Donald Trump’s return and his administration’s economic threats directed at Canada changed the political environment dramatically. Mark Carney was able to shift the debate toward a different question: Who was best equipped to manage a tariff crisis with the United States? In the end, the governing Liberals clinched another victory.

Québec’s opposition parties will need to avoid falling into the same trap by continuing to run a campaign designed for a political context that has since changed.

There are already early signs that the situation may be working to Christine Fréchette’s advantage. A Léger poll released this week still places the PQ first at 30%, but it shows the CAQ gaining ground and moving ahead of the QLP. Pollster Jean-Marc Léger has suggested that the tariff crisis is helping reposition Fréchette as the main alternative to the PQ.

None of this makes the CAQ’s two-term record disappear, and election campaigns can change quickly. But as the campaign begins, Christine Fréchette does have one important advantage: she is the sitting Premier at a moment when voters are looking for answers to a new and significant crisis.

The question over the coming weeks will therefore be whether this election remains a referendum on the CAQ’s record or becomes a choice about who voters believe is best positioned to protect Québec’s economy from Donald Trump’s policies.