The Parti Québécois Returns to Power with a Minority Government

Québec voters reshaped the province’s political landscape on Monday night, electing a minority Parti Québécois government after a closely fought campaign. The PQ returned to power for the first time since 2012 with just 28% of the popular vote, a result that left it short of the majority it had hoped to secure.

The other defining result was the total collapse of the Coalition Avenir Québec. After eight years in government, the CAQ was shut out of the National Assembly, a dramatic reversal for a party that had dominated Québec politics since 2018 with two back-to-back majorities. Its defeat was driven in large part by the loss of francophone voters who had formed the base of its previous electoral successes. Premier Christine Fréchette was herself defeated, the only major party leader not to win a seat, reflecting the broader rejection of her party by voters.

The Québec Liberal Party finished second and nearly doubled the size of its caucus compared with the 2022 election. The party not only recaptured a number of traditionally Liberal seats, but also expanded its reach beyond its strongholds, making gains in Montreal’s suburbs as well as in the Eastern Townships.

Perhaps one of the biggest stories of the night was the breakthrough of the Conservative Party of Québec. After winning nearly 13% of the vote but no seats just four years ago, the party elected 19 MNAs and came close to sweeping the Greater Québec City region. Québec solidaire, the province’s leftmost major party, saw its share of the popular vote decline but nevertheless managed to retain roughly the same number of seats, preserving a significant presence in the National Assembly but falling short of official party status once again.

The resulting electoral map of the province highlighted significant regional divisions. The Liberals remained particularly strong in Montreal and Laval, while the Conservatives emerged as the dominant force in and around Québec City. The incoming PQ government will therefore have relatively limited representation in Québec’s two largest urban areas.

Compared to many recent Québec elections, the campaign featured considerable debate over policies and competing visions for the province. Questions around the economy, immigration, public services and Québec’s relationship with Ottawa all played an important role, even as the national question remained a central dividing line.

What comes next

The PQ came within reach of forming a majority, but the outcome suggests that it lost momentum in the final days of the campaign. The party performed particularly well among advance voters, while its results among those who cast their ballots on election day were noticeably weaker. The contrast suggests that the PQ may have surrendered its chance at a majority during the home stretch of the campaign.

The PQ’s commitment to holding a referendum on sovereignty during a first mandate may have contributed to some eleventh-hour hesitation among voters. Whatever the precise cause, the party that entered the final week with a realistic path to a majority ultimately emerged with less than 30% of the popular vote and a minority government.

Québec has little tradition of formal coalition governments, and there is no reason to expect one this time. Instead, the PQ will likely seek support from different opposition parties on an issue-by-issue basis. On some matters, it could find common ground with the Conservatives; on others, the Liberals or Québec solidaire could provide the votes it needs to pass legislation.

There are also no grounds to assume that a minority government will necessarily be short-lived. Both the Liberals and Conservatives emerged significantly stronger than they were four years ago and may not have an interest in returning to the polls. The PQ could even take a page from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s playbook and attempt to attract individual opposition MNAs to its caucus in order to cross the 64-seat threshold required for a majority.

This election will mark a major political change for Québec. After eight years under a CAQ government, the province will now be led by a party with a very different vision of Québec’s place in Canada and of its relationship with Ottawa.

The federal-provincial relationship will be one of the most important files to watch. The new Parti Québécois government will have to work with Prime Minister Carney’s government at a time when Québec is dealing with trade uncertainty with the United States, pressure on its public finances, and the need to support businesses in a more difficult economic environment. Even without an immediate referendum, the arrival of a sovereigntist government in Québec City will inevitably change the political dynamic between Québec and Ottawa.

For those of you who have followed Boudeweel Public Affairs’ coverage over the past several weeks — as well as our Québec political updates over the past few years — thank you for reading. The election may be over, but the next political chapter is only beginning. Our team will continue to keep you informed as the new government takes office, appoints its cabinet, sets its priorities and begins navigating a very different National Assembly and a new relationship with Ottawa and the rest of Canada.