Québec Election 2026: Week 5 Recap

The time for voters to make their choice has finally arrived. After a lengthy election campaign, Quebecers will head to the polls next Monday to elect a new government. Barring a major surprise, the election is likely to mark the beginning of a new political era in Québec. Here is a glimpse at the final days of the campaign, the latest projections and the key developments to watch ahead of October 5.

Almost a quarter of voters have already cast a ballot

Advance voting, held on Sunday and Monday, once again saw strong turnout. Across Québec, preliminary turnout reached 23.59%, meaning nearly one in four eligible voters has already voted. Participation was particularly high in the Québec City and Chaudière-Appalaches regions, where the Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) currently leads in the polls.

Heading toward a Parti Québécois government

Barring a dramatic change of course over the next few days, the Parti Québécois (PQ) appears on track to win the election on October 5. The CAQ’s collapse, combined with the highly fragmented non-sovereigntist vote across four parties and a cautious but largely error-free campaign, has worked in the PQ’s favour. The latest Léger poll puts the PQ at 30%, followed by the Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 26%, the PCQ at 18%, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 16% and Québec solidaire at 9%. The main question now is whether PQ leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon can secure a majority government – something the party has not achieved since 1998.

Allegations of U.S. interference another major setback for the CAQ?

After losing ground in the polls following a disappointing performance by its leader in the televised debates, the CAQ badly needed to regain momentum. Party brass believed they had an opportunity to do so by leaking information to a journalist about alleged U.S. interference in the election favouring the PQ. Those allegations, however, were quickly challenged. Worse, it was revealed that the CAQ had been aware of the information for some time without alerting intelligence authorities, although Christine Fréchette had reportedly been kept in the dark by aides. Facing accusations that members of her team had attempted to influence media coverage and public opinion just days before the vote, Fréchette was forced to pledge an investigation into her own campaign team; a major setback and distraction. The controversy is likely to follow the CAQ through the final days of the campaign.

The Parti Québécois abandons the Third Link… and the Québec City region?

After long supporting a third link between Québec City and Lévis dedicated to public transit, the PQ abandoned this commitment in the campaign home stretch. The decision is significant, particularly in a region where the issue remains important and where the PCQ continues to lead in voting intentions. The change of course could also reflect a strategic calculation: rather than devote significant resources to breaking through in the Québec City region – where it currently holds only one seat – the PQ may be choosing to focus its efforts on more attainable ridings elsewhere in Québec.

Québec-Ottawa relations are set to change

The election of a Parti Québécois government would significantly change the dynamic between Québec and Ottawa, at a time when fractures are emerging elsewhere in Canada. Relations with Prime Minister Mark Carney would likely become more contentious as the PQ seeks greater autonomy for Québec and will attempt to demonstrate what it sees as the limitations of the Canadian federation. The PQ’s desire to pursue a more independent approach to economic diplomacy, particularly with the United States, could also become a source of tension with the federal government.

Significant political and administrative turnover ahead

The election of a new government would also bring significant political and administrative turnover. This would be particularly pronounced under a PQ government, as the party held only seven seats when the National Assembly was dissolved. Beyond appointing a new cabinet, approximately 500 positions would need to be filled across ministerial offices and MNAs’ constituency and parliamentary offices. Changes should also be expected at the senior levels of the public service, as the new government brings in a team capable of implementing its key priorities. The current cabinet includes nearly 30 ministers and ministers responsible for specific portfolios, which gives a sense of the magnitude of the forthcoming transition.

Election night: key races to watch

Across Québec’s 127 ridings, some contests are shaping up to be more politically significant than others. Here are several races worth watching closely on the eve of October 5:

• Trois-Rivières: Christine Fréchette took a significant risk by running in this riding, which has historically been a bellwether – typically voting for the party that goes on to form government. If she were defeated, an outcome that appears increasingly possible, questions would inevitably arise about her future as CAQ leader.

• Orford: Liberal leader Charles Milliard surprised many when he chose to run in this Eastern Townships riding. Already facing criticism from within his own party over what some have described as a lacklustre campaign, a defeat would place further pressure on his leadership. The collapse of the CAQ vote, however, now appears to have improved his chances of winning the seat.

• Drummond-Bois-Francs, Arthabaska-L’Érable, Nicolet-Bécancour and Mégantic: Outside the Québec City region, these are among the ridings where the Conservatives appear to have their strongest opportunities to elect MNAs. Winning seats in these areas would represent a significant breakthrough for Éric Duhaime’s party.

• Borduas: If the CAQ is left with only one MNA after October 5, it could very well be in this riding, held by prominent minister Simon Jolin-Barrette. A PQ victory in this closely contested seat could leave the CAQ without representation in the National Assembly.

The election’s big unknowns

Beyond individual riding battles, the election will also answer several major questions that could reshape Québec’s political landscape for years to come.

• How many PQ MNAs will be elected in Montréal and Québec City? Can the PQ break through the concentration of Liberal and Québec solidaire support and elect additional MNAs in Montréal, aside from its leader? In Québec City, will voters punish the party for abandoning the Third Link? Behind these questions lies a broader one: could the PQ end up governing without significant representation from either Montréal or Québec City?

• How many CAQ MNAs will be left? After a relatively promising start to the campaign, the CAQ has fallen dramatically in recent weeks. The possibility that the party could be shut out entirely is quite possible, raising serious questions about its post-election future.

• Could the PCQ become the second opposition party? Because of the concentration of its vote, the PLQ is expected to form the Official Opposition under a PQ government. The Conservatives could nevertheless emerge as the next-largest opposition caucus, which would represent a major political breakthrough for the party.

• Will there be leadership resignations on election night? Regardless of the outcome, party leaders who suffer significant electoral defeats may face immediate questions about whether they should remain in their positions or bow out.