The Québec Election is on!

It’s official: Québec is now in an election campaign. Over the course of the next month and a half, the Québec Now team will closely monitor key developments and bring you the most important updates each week. As the campaign buses get rolling, we’re starting with a look at the initial playing field.

What the polls are saying

With the campaign underway, the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads off as the frontrunner, with 30% of voting intentions. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is benefiting from the tariff war and continuing its modest rebound, now tied for second place with the Québec Liberal Party (PLQ), which has slipped to 23%. The Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) has climbed to 16%, while Québec solidaire (QS) has fallen to 7%.

A desire for change

After eight years of a CAQ government, Quebecers want change. The CAQ itself recognizes this: the party has been rebranded as Team Fréchette, its logo has all but disappeared from its communications, and leader Christine Fréchette has not hesitated to distance herself from her predecessor.

Unpopular leaders

Poll after poll points to the same trend: the more Quebecers get to know the would-be premiers across all parties, the less they like them. That dynamic will be difficult for the parties to manage, given how much exposure their leaders will receive over the coming weeks.

Tariff war: a campaign under Trump’s influence

With Canada-U.S. trade negotiations having failed and new tariffs imposed, plus the PQ’s announcement that it would postpone its referendum until the post-Trump era, it’s clear that the U.S. president has already shaped the campaign narrative twice in barely a week.

Challenges for each party

Regardless of their starting position in the campaign, each party faces its own unique challenges:

• Parti Québécois (PQ): Turn sustained support into an election victory. The PQ has led voting intentions since 2023, but the challenge now is to convert that lead into concrete gains at the riding level. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon must also take the next step forward in defining himself politically: beyond his role as opposition leader, he will have to convince voters that he has the stature, judgment and credibility to become premier.

• Québec Liberal Party (PLQ): Make its voice and ideas heard. In the media, the PLQ and its leader Charles Milliard have been muted and almost absent. Politically, the party appears squeezed between the PQ, which occupies the nationalist space, and the CAQ, which is trying to own the economic issues. The PLQ must find a clear angle to distinguish itself or risk further decline. That challenge is on top of the number of announced candidates who later withdrew from their respective races.

• Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ): Embody change within continuity, and security without opportunism. It will be difficult for Christine Fréchette to show the change Quebecers are looking for. She must find a way to shift the election debate away from the government’s record. She will also have to balance her roles as CAQ leader and premier, defending the economy without appearing overly opportunistic.

• Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ): Focus its efforts on where a breakthrough is genuinely possible. For the PCQ, the challenge will be to turn support into seats, especially in winnable ridings in the Québec City and Chaudière-Appalaches regions. Éric Duhaime will need to keep the campaign focused on his agenda and priorities while avoiding statements or controversies involving candidates that could distract from his message and cost him control of the campaign narrative.

• Québec solidaire (QS): Remain relevant in a political environment that is less favourable to its traditional issues. Québec solidaire will need to find a way to reconnect with an electorate that currently appears less receptive to several of the party’s longstanding priorities. Its challenge will be to make those priorities heard and recognized in a campaign dominated by other concerns, while showing that it remains politically relevant beyond its most loyal base.

  
  

Looking back at the pre-campaign season

Although the campaign officially begins today, the parties have been in campaign mode throughout the summer.

The winners

• The PQ, which remains at the top of the polls and has so far won the battle for high-profile candidates. The party has maintained its frontrunner status without yet suffering the loss of momentum and exhaustion that normally comes with that position.

• The CAQ, which has succeeded in putting several of its themes at the centre of the election discussion, including Churchill Falls and the response to U.S. tariffs. This has allowed the party to shift part of the debate away from the government’s record and toward the economy and the defence of Québec’s interests.

• The PCQ, which has succeeded in bringing several of its issues into the public debate and is benefiting from an ideological environment that is more favourable to some of its positions.

  
  

The losers

• The PLQ, which was largely absent from the political scene over the summer, while allegations of wrongdoing involving the party returned to the news. This is hardly the backdrop Charles Milliard needs to present a positive, renewed image of the PLQ as the campaign begins.

• QS, also largely absent from the discourse, at a time when the issues dominating the campaign align poorly with its traditional left-wing priorities.