Québec Election 2026: Week 4 Recap

With less than two weeks to go before election day, the provincial campaign is entering the home stretch. After three leaders’ debates, the overall trends are emerging: the Parti Québécois (PQ) remains in the lead, the Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) holds second place, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is struggling to regain ground, while the Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) continues to be a significant force in the Québec City region. The final few days will be crucial in determining whether these trends translate into real outcomes on October 5.

Final leaders’ debate

The final Radio-Canada leaders’ debate on Wednesday night appeared unlikely to have changed the overall dynamics of the campaign. While there was no clear winner, Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP) arguably benefited simply by avoiding a major setback. As the frontrunner, the PQ leader entered the debate with more to lose than to gain, and his opponents failed to seriously put him on the defensive or fundamentally change the course of the race. For PSPP, not losing the debate may have been enough.

Polls show little impact from the debates as the PQ moves closer to a majority

The first two debates did little to move the needle in Quebecers’ voting intentions. However, recent shifts among seniors and francophone voters, combined with the continued fragmentation of the vote across the parties, are now working in the PQ’s favour. According to seat projection models, the PQ is now only a handful of seats away from being able to form a majority government. The latest poll shows the PQ retaining first place at 29%, followed by the PLQ at 23%, the CAQ at 20%, the PCQ at 17%, and Québec solidaire (QS) at 10%.

A bromance between PSPP and Duhaime?

Cuts to the public service, efforts to reduce bureaucracy and now baby bonuses: since the start of the campaign, several PQ proposals have echoed ideas already put forward by the PCQ. The PQ and PCQ leaders have also exchanged a number of courtesies during the national debates and largely avoided overly acrimonious clashes with one another. With only a few weeks remaining before the vote, both the CAQ and QS are now trying to capitalize on this perceived closeness, warning against the prospect of a Conservative-backed PQ government.

Alliance forming in opposition to high-speed rail project

Further to their alignment on other issues, Duhaime has promised to join forces with the PQ to block Alto’s high-speed rail project. The Conservative leader has expressed opposition to the planned route, which would connect Québec City and Toronto but cross substantial amounts of farmland along the way. The PQ leader has also spoken out against the project in recent weeks, arguing that the compensation being offered to farmers is insufficient. Could this major Canadian infrastructure project now be at risk if the PQ and PCQ together hold a majority of seats in the National Assembly?

PQ accused of laying the groundwork for austerity in its fiscal framework

Over the past few weeks, several analysts have pointed to inconsistencies in the PQ’s fiscal framework – unveiled in the absence of its leader – particularly with respect to projected government revenues. Combined with the party’s commitment to quickly restore a balanced budget, concerns have been raised about a potentially significant impact on public services. The CAQ and QS have added to the mounting criticism, accusing PSPP of preparing a return to austerity and reviving memories of the spending cuts implemented by Philippe Couillard’s Liberal government.

Another embarrassment for the CAQ

The CAQ has recently had to deal with a controversy involving one of its MNAs, who handed out $20 bills hidden inside party-branded prizes during a bingo event. The incident drew criticism from the other political parties and forced Christine Fréchette to acknowledge a serious lapse in judgment on the part of the MNA.

Verdict – Week Four

Best week:

The PQ, which has navigated the three leaders’ debates well and avoided major missteps despite repeated attacks from its opponents. Still leading in voting intentions, the party can now more seriously contemplate the possibility of forming not just a government, but a majority government.

Struggling:

The CAQ continues to struggle to reverse the downward trend at a crucial point in the campaign. Controversies have plagued the party in recent days, and it remains in third place in voting intentions, behind both the PQ and the PLQ.

What to watch for:

The PCQ in the Québec City region. One of the key things to monitor in the final days of the campaign will be whether the party can maintain its lead in the region and, above all, convert that support into seats. A strong enough performance would allow the party to gain representation in the National Assembly.