In Québec, a wind of change has been blowing across the political spectrum for the past year or so, marked by a significant rise in voting intentions for the Parti Québécois (PQ). For the first time in a long time, the PQ is a real threat to the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which has governed the province since 2018.
Faced with this rise, the CAQ has not remained passive. The ruling party made strategic adjustments to regain popular support. Notably, significant advances were made in the health sector, a critical concern for voters, especially in the post-pandemic context. At the same time, the CAQ made a return to more free-market policies, particularly in the construction sector, aimed at stimulating the economy and meeting infrastructure needs.
The PQ's rise in the polls can be attributed to several key factors. One of the most influential is undoubtedly the charismatic leadership of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has breathed new life into his party. His dynamic, inclusive approach seems to have revived interest in a political movement that had lost its lustre over the years.
At the same time, the current CAQ government seems to be showing signs of running out of steam. The hyperactive management of numerous files simultaneously may have begun to weigh on its popularity. Voters, initially seduced by the energy and ambition of the ruling party, may now perceive this administrative frenzy as a lack of focus and prioritization.
Another significant reason for the PQ's rise is the new fracture within Québec's nationalists. While the independence movement seemed to be dormant, a faction of nationalists is once again expressing separatist sentiments. Although they do not constitute a majority, the latter are expressing significant disappointment with the CAQ, which they deem insufficient in using its balance of power with the federal government in Ottawa. Although separatism is not on the rise, this disappointment among some nationalist voters is fuelling the flame of the PQ, which sees this as an opportunity to regain ground.
In conclusion, the Parti Québécois' rise in voting intentions represents a potential turning point for Québec politics. It will be interesting to follow the evolution of this dynamic, especially as elections approach. The possibility of departures within the current government could trigger by-elections, which are by nature unpredictable and could yield surprises. These developments could either confirm the rise of the PQ as a serious challenger to the CAQ, or redefine political alliances and priorities in Québec once again.
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