Québec’s Political Pulse

In Québec, the last two weeks of July traditionally mark the construction holidays; a professional, political, and media break. As Quebecers return to work, and as political parties prepare for the fall parliamentary session in earnest, the Québec Now team offers a quick look back at recent news, as well as a preview of issues to watch over the coming weeks.

By-election: the CAQ punished by voters

Long a CAQ stronghold, the riding of Arthabaska has officially fallen to the PQ, following a by-election in which Conservative leader Éric Duhaime once again failed to secure a seat in the National Assembly. For the CAQ, which obtained results expected from a third party, the defeat is stinging. Even if it was expected within CAQ circles, it remains a painful loss, just a year away from the next general election. A small consolation for the CAQ, however: this setback should be quickly overshadowed, at least in the media, by the upcoming cabinet shuffle (see other text).

Summer caucus: CAQ in collective therapy mode

While many are still on vacation, the CAQ summoned its MNAs to an in-person caucus in Québec City on August 14. Observers believe this unusual and unexpected meeting was mainly aimed at damage control following the loss in Arthabaska and an attempt to prevent a wave of MNAs publicly “reflecting” on their political futures, just before the final parliamentary session before the next election gets underway. This summer caucus retreat was likely also an opportunity to gauge undecided members on whether they intend to run again, a choice that could shape decisions in the upcoming cabinet shuffle.

Imminent cabinet shuffle, CAQ members on edge

Ministers Geneviève Guilbault (Transport) and Bernard Drainville (Education), both considered among the government’s best communicators, recently struggled to answer reporters’ questions about whether they plan to stay in their current positions. When a shuffle is expected at any moment and their futures in the hands of the Premier, it was undoubtedly hard to give a solid answer! Generally speaking, current ministers are keeping a low profile and avoiding public meetings or media scrums, while waiting to see what happens next. MNAs are more on edge than ever, with some even anticipating the long-awaited appointment, while others are bracing for potential disappointment.

Major changes at the head of Hydro and the SAAQ

This summer, two of Québec’s most important Crown corporations saw their CEOs make an exit. At the SAAQ, Éric Ducharme was dismissed, with Minister Geneviève Guilbault saying she had lost confidence in the man she had appointed to turn things around after the SAAQclic scandal. Meanwhile, Hydro-Québec experienced the surprise resignation of Michael Sabia who was tapped by Prime Minister Carney to be Clerk of the Privy Council. He was succeeded by Claudine Bouchard, who will now lead the corporation at a time when Québec stands at an energy crossroads.

A buyer in sight for Northvolt?

After the bankruptcy of its parent company, the future of Northvolt’s battery mega-factory project in Québec seemed grim. But a glimmer of hope recently emerged: Lyten, a U.S. battery manufacturer, has acquired some of Northvolt’s assets in Sweden and Germany, and has reportedly shown interest in its North American subsidiary. Could this revive the flagship battery project of the Legault government? Stay tuned.

Fall parliamentary session: key issues to watch

On September 16, MNAs will return to the National Assembly in Québec City for the last fall session before the next general election. Here is a quick rundown of some files to watch:

• Cabinet shuffle: Who will keep their place and who will get new responsibilities? Who will join the cabinet and who will be left out? What impact will this have on ongoing files?

• Negotiations with doctors: After a tense end to the last parliamentary session between doctors and Health Minister Christian Dubé, the summer brought a pause in public sparring. That calm ended as the doctors’ federation returned to the media, calling for the bill that would change their working conditions to be withdrawn. Is an agreement still within reach?

• SAAQclic scandal: After a series of embarrassing revelations this summer, the testimonies of Ministers Geneviève Guilbault and François Bonnardel are expected soon. This high-stakes exercise could influence François Legault’s decisions when forming his next cabinet.

• The arrival of Pablo Rodriguez: The new Liberal leader will want to use the fall session to dethrone the PQ as the perceived “government-in-waiting.” Early polls give him a shot, but can he deliver?

• Municipal elections: Scheduled for November across Québec. Could some CAQ members worried about their future be tempted to jump ship and move to municipal politics?

• Forestry regime reform: Introduced just before the summer break, it has been rejected by experts and criticized from all sides. Could a new minister take it back to the drawing board?

• Full steam ahead on energy planning: With the energy reform now adopted and Hydro-Québec’s new CEO appointed, the government will have free rein to proceed with strategic planning for energy production in the coming years.