PQ Continues Winning Streak while CAQ Stumbles

On August 11, a provincial by-election in the riding of Arthabaska sent political shockwaves across Québec. Many had hoped that Éric Duhaime, leader of the Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ), would finally secure a seat in the National Assembly. Instead, they were met with disappointment as the Parti Québécois (PQ), riding a wave of momentum from a string of by-election victories since 2023, scored yet another win. Alex Boissoneault, a former journalist, claimed victory with over 46 percent of the vote, defeating Duhaime by more than 4,000 votes. While Duhaime’s second place, 35 percent showing was respectable, it was not enough to secure the seat.

The night was especially grim for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which received only 7 percent of the vote. This is a staggering drop from the nearly 52 percent it garnered in the 2022 election and marks the first time since 2012 that the CAQ has lost Arthabaska. Premier François Legault took full responsibility for what he called a brutal defeat, acknowledging that Quebecers have lost confidence in his government and are increasingly dissatisfied. With just one year before the next general election, Legault has pledged to go all in, promising a reshuffled cabinet and new policy ideas to win back voters’ trust.

The Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) results were only marginally better. Under its new leader, Pablo Rodriguez, the PLQ’s candidate secured only 9 percent of the vote in the predominantly francophone riding. This result, while disappointing, is not entirely surprising given that the Liberals have never been a serious contender in Arthabaska. Still, it underscores the challenges that Rodriguez faces in rebuilding the party’s appeal outside its traditional strongholds.

For the PQ, the message could not be clearer, they are now the most credible alternative to the CAQ to form the next government. Public sentiment suggests Quebecers are increasingly motivated to turn the page on the CAQ, which they no longer trust. The big question for the coming year is how PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will handle the sovereignty issue. A renewed focus on the independence debate could energize the PQ’s base, but it could also revive the federalist vote, potentially breathing new life into Rodriguez’s Liberals and pushing the CAQ to the sidelines of the main political conversation.

For the PCQ, the loss is a bitter pill to swallow. In 2022, over 500,000 Quebecers cast their ballots for the party, yet not a single Conservative candidate was elected. This latest result leaves those voters once again without representation in the National Assembly. The road ahead for Duhaime will be closely watched. While he remains a prominent figure with a loyal following, questions will begin to surface about his political future as the leader. He still has a plausible path to election in 2026, particularly in a more conservative-friendly riding in the Québec City region, but this by-election result makes it clear that the road to relevance and prominence will not be easy.