Election Puts Québec at the Heart of Federal Power

The federal election of April 28 once again highlighted Québec’s strategic role in Canada’s political landscape. While an old saying used to claim that Ontario decides who forms the government and Québec decides whether it will be a minority or a majority, this time it was quite the opposite. With 42.6% of the vote going to Mark Carney’s Liberal Party and 44 MPs elected out of 78, Québec effectively sealed the Liberals’ victory. At the same time, the loss of Liberal seats in Ontario held them to a minority.

This Liberal surge came at the expense of the Bloc Québécois, which lost 10 seats compared to its tally of 32 in the 2021 election. That said, the Bloc managed to contain the damage in the final week of the campaign, avoiding what looked like an impending collapse. The Conservative Party of Canada held on to its 10 ridings and gained one in the Charlevoix region, achieving a province-wide record of 23.3% of the vote – its highest since the Mulroney era. However, victory margins were thinner in some of their strongholds, notably in the Québec City region and in Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, reflecting stiffer competition than usual.

As for the NDP, it posted a modest performance with just 4.5% of the vote and retained only a single seat on the Island of Montreal. This outcome highlights the party’s ongoing struggle to gain traction among Québec voters.

A striking post-election moment came when Québec Premier François Legault congratulated Mark Carney and pointedly told him that he “owed one” to Quebecers. Yet, as the electoral excitement faded, it was announced that King Charles would deliver the upcoming Throne Speech—a rather ill-advised gesture of thanks to a province with little affection for the British monarchy.

All eyes now turn to the makeup of the next federal cabinet. Which Québec MPs will remain at the table? François-Philippe Champagne, Mélanie Joly, and Steven Guilbeault—each of whom supported Carney’s leadership bid—are well positioned to stay. But this may also be the moment for new faces, such as former Québec Finance Minister Carlos Leitão or Joël Lightbound, who has been patiently waiting his turn in the Québec City region since 2015.

One thing is certain: with such a decisive result, Québec cannot be ignored. The question now is whether that influence will translate into tangible outcomes.