The Summer Before the Campaign

With the parliamentary session now behind them, Québec politicians are heading into the summer and back to their ridings with one mission: to be seen. Over the coming weeks, MNAs, ministers, candidates and party leaders will be making appearances at neighbourhood festivals, barbecues, local events and community gatherings across the province.

As the October 5 election approaches, the race has become more fluid. The latest Synopsis-La Presse poll puts the Parti Québécois in first place at 31%, followed by the Québec Liberal Party at 25%, the CAQ at 21%, the Conservative Party at 12%, and Québec solidaire at 11%. The result changes the tone of the pre-campaign period: the PQ remains ahead, but the Liberals have lost momentum, while the CAQ is again close enough to make the race look less like a two-party contest and more like a three-way fight.

That is good news for Premier Christine Fréchette. Once seen as leading a government in its final months, she now appears to have at least partially stabilized the CAQ. The question is whether she can turn that recovery into something broader: a credible attempt to make the election competitive again after years of political fatigue with the government.

Despite her emerging competitiveness, the political realities are catching up with the premier. The CAQ is still facing a wave of departures, with around 40 MNAs (at the time of publication) choosing not to run again in the Fall. Some made this decision despite Fréchette’s election as leader, which suggests that the leadership change has not fully restored confidence within the party. The CAQ has not yet announced any new candidates, while both the Parti Québécois and the Liberals have begun announcing credible, high-profile candidates in winnable ridings.

The Liberals face a different problem. Charles Milliard had given the party new momentum, but the latest poll suggests that support remains fragile. His task over the summer will be to prove that the Liberal recovery is more than a short-term bump and that the party can speak beyond its traditional base.

The Parti Québécois remains the party to beat, but it also faces a more complicated campaign than it did a few months ago. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon continues to promise a referendum on Québec independence in a first mandate, giving the PQ a clear position but also one that will define the campaign if the other parties choose to make it central.

The campaign themes are still taking shape. Québec’s struggling economy was not the dominant issue in the final weeks of the parliamentary session. Instead, the National Assembly spent considerable time on issues such as banning the sale of energy drinks to people under 16 and healthcare debates. It also debated the electoral map, with the government pressing on to increase the number of MNAs from 125 to 127 despite the courts confirming the independent redistribution process could proceed.

All things considered, the economy is likely to become one of the central battleground issues of the campaign. Liberal Leader Charles Milliard has begun to frame Québec’s economic future around reindustrialization, deregulation, immigration, support for small and medium-sized businesses, and business succession. Milliard’s positioning gives the Liberals a clearer economic focus than they have had in recent years, especially if they connect it to regional growth and the cost pressures felt by businesses and families.

The constitutional question has also returned, but in a very different form than in past campaigns. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon continues to promise a referendum on Québec independence in a first mandate, making the Parti Québécois’ position clear and absolute. For Christine Fréchette, the issue is more delicate. Some CAQ ministers have already indicated how they would vote in a referendum, either Yes or No, making it harder for the premier to keep the party toeing a single, disciplined line. Her challenge will be to determine whether she can still embody the “third way” that François Legault successfully offered in 2018: neither federalist in the Liberal sense, nor sovereigntist in the PQ sense, but nationalist, pragmatic, and laser-focused on governing.

The bottom line is that the summer months will matter. The parties are not only seeking visibility—they are also trying to define what the election will be about. Will voters be asked to choose between economic plans, positions on Québec’s future, or simply between competing judgments on the government’s record over the past 8 years? For now, the answer remains unclear, and that uncertainty may be the most important feature of the pre-campaign period.