Political Parties Are at the Starting Line

Most Quebecers will be enjoying the construction holiday over the next two weeks. It will provide one last respite before what promises to be a colourful election season. With the campaign likely to begin in only a few weeks, Québec Now is providing an overview of the parties as they line up on the starting line:

CAQ: An Incumbent Government Facing Political Extinction

Christine Fréchette made a successful debut with an initial bump in the polls, but since then she has struggled to move the needle for the CAQ. While hard-working and rigorous, she lacks charisma and has many of the characteristics of her predecessor – much like her team members – placing them at odds with Quebecers’ desire for change. The CAQ remains third in voting intentions, and the hoped-for “Fréchette effect” has yet to materialize. The party therefore enters the campaign in a difficult position: nearly half of its MNAs will not seek re-election, and most declared candidates are young newcomers or political staffers being sent into ridings where defeat appears likely. This fall, the CAQ will be fighting – not to remain in power, but to remain relevant. Current projections give the party only nine seats, too few to even obtain recognized parliamentary group status and the financial and visibility benefits that come with it.

• Leader: Christine Fréchette

• Official candidates: 73

• Voting intentions: 20%

• Challenge: Repositioning continuity as change

PQ: A Government-in-Waiting… with an Achilles’ Heel

The Parti Québécois has led voting intentions for several months and has attracted high-profile candidates, including Philippe Schnobb, former chair of the Société de transport de Montréal, Guy Lapointe, former spokesperson for the Sûreté du Québec, and Gaétan Bédard, former commandant of the Royal Military College Saint-Jean. Several nomination races are also being contested, which is a good sign of the party’s vitality. Despite the positive momentum, a PQ victory is far from inevitable. Although Quebecers desire change, 70% remain strongly opposed to sovereignty, which the PQ has made a central issue, as evidenced by publishing its Blue Book. Its frontrunner status is also bringing greater scrutiny to its leader, whose popularity continues to decline in the polls, placing him among Québec’s least-liked politicians.

• Leader: Paul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon

• Official candidates: 36

• Voting intentions: 29%

• Challenge: Presenting a plan to govern Quebec while continuing to pursue sovereignty

QLP: Possibility of a Liberal Government Should Not Be Ruled Out

Charles Milliard took over the QLP after Pablo Rodriguez’s controversial resignation, following allegations of vote-buying that tainted his once-promising leadership victory. Young, energetic and charismatic, Milliard is the antithesis of François Legault. Under his leadership, the party has adopted a somewhat more nationalist tone, despite tensions with its anglophone base, and now only narrowly trails the PQ in the polls. However, the concentration of Liberal support in Montreal still leaves the party in second place. The QLP has recruited several high-profile candidates, including Julie White, Pierre Cossette and Michel Leblanc, but some comments, particularly those of candidate and influencer Farnell Morisset on independence, have caused embarrassment for the party. If the QLP can avoid further missteps and convince Quebecers to look past the scandals of the Charest era, it could deliver a surprise this fall.

• Leader: Charles Milliard

• Official candidates: 71

• Voting intentions: 25%

• Challenge: Keeping the team disciplined and presenting a coherent government-in-waiting message

QS: At Risk of “NDP-ization”

After the CAQ, Québec solidaire is probably the party approaching the campaign with the greatest level of apprehension. Since 2022, the political mood has shifted dramatically, and Quebecers have not escaped the fatigue with progressivism seen elsewhere in Canada and beyond. QS has also lost its two best-known figures, co-spokespersons Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, along with much of its media visibility. Constrained by its activists and unable to shift toward the centre, the party is now polling in the single digits. Its existence is not threatened, but it risks being confined to the role of the National Assembly’s social conscience, much like the federal NDP after Thomas Mulcair’s departure. QS has so far nominated the most candidates, but none truly stand out as having star qualities, apart from Alexandre Boulerice, Quebec’s lone NDP MP, who appears to be jumping from one troubled ship to another.

• Leaders: Ruba Ghazal and Sol Zanetti

• Declared candidates: 71

• Voting intentions: 11%

• Challenge: Speaking to ordinary Quebecers without alienating party activists

PCQ: A Likely Political Disruptor

By contrast, the Conservative Party of Quebec is benefiting from Quebec’s ideological swing and the CAQ’s unpopularity to consolidate and even expand its base. It now presents itself as the heir to a third way, neither federalist nor sovereignist. For the first time, the PCQ could elect MNAs, with current projections giving it 14 seats, mainly in the greater Quebec City area, also a traditional stronghold for the federal Conservative Party. The 14-seat gain would not be enough to govern, but it would be enough to become a legitimate political force and perhaps hold the balance of power in a minority government. So far, the party has surprisingly avoided major pre-election missteps and has nominated about 50 candidates, including Dominique Dumas and Marcel Bouchard. Its main challenge will be to present a respectable image, since its support remains volatile and its candidates have historically been associated with inflammatory remarks and controversy. The recent hiring of a high-profile former CAQ staffer as chief of staff could help Éric Duhaime stay on course.

• Leader: Éric Duhaime

• Declared candidates: 50

• Voting intentions: 14%

• Challenge: Presenting more professionally to consolidate support