The CAQ Leadership Race Begins to Take Shape

The political landscape in Québec has entered a period of transition following the resignation of Premier François Legault in mid-January. After two years marked by declining popularity, Legault’s departure has opened the door to a leadership race within the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) that will be decisive not only for the future of the party, but also for the direction of the Québec government itself. The stakes are high, as the next CAQ leader will automatically become Québec’s next Premier, even if for a brief time. The new leader and next Premier will be known on April 12.

To understand what lies ahead, it is essential to look back at the foundation of the CAQ’s success. Under François Legault, the party established itself as a third option in Québec’s split political arena. It was neither sovereigntist like the Parti Québécois, nor explicitly federalist like the Québec Liberal Party. Instead, the CAQ offered a pragmatic alternative, focused on governance, economic development, and a measured form of nationalism that appealed to a broad segment of voters by avoiding firmly planting its foot in one camp or the other.

Since its electoral breakthrough in 2012, Legault managed to build and maintain a remarkably diverse team. His caucus brought together figures from a more nationalist wing alongside others rooted in a pro-business, economically driven ideology. Keeping these two factions united under a single political tent was one of Legault’s most significant achievements. Preserving that delicate balance will be the central challenge facing his successor and the party’s future viability.

Among the declared contenders for CAQ leader is Christine Fréchette, the current Minister of the Economy, Energy and Innovation*. Although she is a former member of the Parti Québécois, Fréchette is closely associated with the economic wing of the CAQ. Her focus on investment, competitiveness, and economic growth places her firmly on the pragmatic side of the party. Her positions on immigration, however, are often seen as being at odds with those held by the CAQ’s nationalist wing, underscoring the internal tensions that could shape the leadership race.

Meanwhile, the nationalist wing is now represented in the race by the other declared candidate, Bernard Drainville, now Minister of the Environment*. This current has traditionally emphasized issues of identity, secularism, and state authority, which have become central elements of the CAQ’s political brand in recent years. Drainville’s leadership ambitions are not new; they date back to his time as a Parti Québécois minister under Pauline Marois, and his candidacy clearly signals a stronger orientation of the party towards Québec nationalism.

The challenge ahead is compounded by the announced departures of two prominent ministers often associated with the CAQ’s economic wing. Geneviève Guilbault and Sonia LeBel have both confirmed they will not seek re-election in October 2026. Their absence will significantly reshape the internal dynamics of the party and force the next leader to assemble a cabinet without some of its most influential figures.

Regardless of the outcome, the next CAQ leader and premier will inherit a fragile political coalition. Rebuilding a strong ministerial team while keeping two ideologically distant factions united will be no small task. Whether the CAQ can successfully renew its third-way model, or whether internal divisions will begin to erode its dominance, will depend largely on the political acumen and strategic prowess of its next leader.

*They will be required to resign their positions in order to run.