The CAQ Leadership Race Enters Turbulent Waters

The leadership race unfolding within the Coalition Avenir Québec has quickly evolved beyond a simple internal contest. What was expected to be a controlled succession following the resignation of Premier François Legault has instead exposed deep tensions inside the governing party and raised broader questions about its direction — and about whether a change in leader can realistically alter the trajectory of Québec politics in the short term.

Two candidates, two political approaches

The contest pits Christine Fréchette, former Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy, against Bernard Drainville, former Minister of the Environment and current MNA for Lévis. Drainville is far better known to the public than his opponent, but that name recognition has not translated into broad popularity. Christine Fréchette, by contrast, remains relatively unknown to most Quebecers, despite having held a major economic portfolio in cabinet.

Nevertheless, Fréchette has accumulated the support of several incumbent ministers and some caucus members, while Drainville has secured fewer high-profile endorsements — an imbalance that has shaped their respective campaigns. Fréchette has positioned herself largely in continuity with the Legault government — an unsurprising stance given that many of her supporters are closely tied to the administration’s existing policies and values.

Drainville, on the other hand, has embraced a more confrontational posture, presenting himself as the candidate of change. His platform reflects a more openly centre-right agenda: expanding the role of the private sector in health care, restoring public finances, cutting back what he describes as unnecessary environmental administrative steps, and reducing bureaucracy. It is a clearer ideological pitch — but one that comes with its share of risks, as reflected in public opinion.

Polling consistently shows that Quebecers have little appetite for Drainville as their premier and his personal favourability ratings remain weak. By contrast, surveys indicate that Fréchette would perform better in a general election scenario, despite her limited public recognition. In other words, voters may not know her well, but they appear more open to her than to her rival.

The third link: a defining fault line

The leadership race has been dominated by a familiar and divisive issue: the proposed third highway link between Québec City and Lévis. Drainville, as Lévis’ MNA, has unequivocally supported the project, even though its scope remains unclear and its projected costs continue to raise eyebrows. Fréchette has adopted a more cautious approach, stating that she wants time to consult and reflect before committing her support.

Fréchette’s hesitation led Transport Minister Jonatan Julien to delay the presentation of a revised route, citing the lack of consensus among leadership candidates — a move that stoked tensions. Drainville accused Fréchette of indecision, arguing that after three years at the cabinet table, she should already have a firm position on the issue. Shortly thereafter, François Legault intervened publicly to state that all CAQ MNAs support the third link — despite having previously indicated that he would stay out of the race to replace him.

There is something almost surreal in watching the CAQ continue to implode over a project that has been a persistent political liability and a contributor to its declining public support. While opponents struggle to justify the cost of the third link, supporters remain frustrated by the government’s earlier — and later reversed — decision to abandon it.

On April 12, CAQ members will choose a new leader, but the real question goes beyond the internal vote. The party’s divisions, amplified by the third-link debate, reveal a government struggling to define its post-Legault identity at a moment when voters seek clarity and stability. Whether the winner is Christine Fréchette or Bernard Drainville, the challenge will be convincing Quebecers that the CAQ still offers a coherent vision for the province.