Risky By-election in Arthabaska: What is the CAQ Strategy?

In the coming weeks, the government will have to call a by-election to fill the seat left vacant by former CAQ MNA Eric Lefebvre who successfully made the jump to federal politics. In the context of deep unpopularity, the CAQ fears a protest vote from the Arthabaska electorate, which could make for an especially unpleasant fall parliamentary session, which will be the last one before the next general election scheduled for 2026.

In this upcoming by-election in a riding that has been a CAQ stronghold, the opposition parties have nonetheless entered the race in a strong position. The Parti Québécois (PQ) is running Alex Boissonneault, a prominent journalist from the region. The Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) is fielding its leader, Eric Duhaime, a high-profile media figure. The Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) has not yet named a candidate, but the recent election of Pablo Rodriguez as party leader could shake things up. What initially looked like a tight three-way race between the CAQ, the PQ and the PCQ now appears to be shaping up as a two-way contest between the PQ (43%) and the PCQ (42%) with the CAQ trailing far behind at 15%, according to a recent poll.

The timing of the election call, while imminent, remains to be seen. A summer vote when media and public attention tends to be at its lowest, could help the government minimize the fallout in the case of defeat, especially with a crucial parliamentary session on the horizon.

It already seems clear that the outcome of this by-election will have an impact far beyond the borders of Arthabaska. It will inevitably be seen as a barometer of voters’ mood in the province. Of course, drawing firm conclusions about the outcome of the 2026 general election on this by-election alone would be risky since in the political sphere, a year is an eternity. That said, if the CAQ were to suffer another loss, it would mark the third CAQ-held seat to fall to an opposition party since the start of its second term, following Jean-Talon and Terrebonne, which were both taken decisively by the PQ. A third defeat would start to look like a serious trend, even more so in the event of  another PQ victory. This could very well reinforce the image of the PQ as a government-in-waiting in the minds of voters throughout the province.

On the other hand, a victory for the PCQ could also have lasting effects. It would give Eric Duhaime a platform in the National Assembly and renewed momentum for his party. This could help him break through the barrier that has so far prevented the PCQ from electing candidates, even in regions where they have a strong base, like Québec City and Beauce.

Whatever the outcome, this by-election is shaping up to be a major political test. For the CAQ, it's not just about holding onto a seat, but about proving it can still rally support, persuade voters, and represent a credible option against increasingly strong opponents. The timing of the call and the tone of the campaign will speak volumes about the true state of the CAQ machine. Arthabaska, far beyond its electoral weight, will become a litmus test for what is left of the Legault government’s term… and perhaps even for the future of the party itself.