Québec politics is becoming competitive again

According to the latest Synopsis poll conducted for La Presse, Québec’s political landscape is no longer stagnant. With less than four months before the provincial election campaign begins, the poll found that Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) are tied at 30% in voting intentions after the distribution of undecided voters. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) follows at 18%, ahead of the Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) at 13% and Québec solidaire (QS) at 8%.

At first glance, this looks like a close contest between the PQ and the PLQ. But the numbers tell a more nuanced story. The PQ remains much stronger among francophone voters, which means its support is more efficiently distributed among ridings, thus making it more likely to translate into seats throughout the province. The PLQ, meanwhile, has regained ground by consolidating its traditional base, particularly among non-francophone voters and on the island of Montréal.

In other words, while the two parties may be tied province-wide, they are not tied in the same regions. That distinction could make all the difference once votes are converted into seats.

The CAQ’s situation is also worth watching. Although the party is still far from the dominant position it held only a few years ago, Christine Fréchette’s arrival appears to have improved its fortunes slightly and changed the tone of the race. The government is no longer being dismissed outright by voters, as seemed apparent only a few months ago. Now, a portion of the electorate seems willing to take a second look.

This does not mean voters are ready to return to the CAQ in large numbers, however, but for a party that had become politically exhausted under François Legault, even being reconsidered as a viable option is a meaningful shift. The high number of voters who have not yet formed an opinion on the new premier gives Fréchette both an opening and a deadline. She has a chance to redefine the CAQ before the campaign, but that window of opportunity will not stay open for long.

The regional context also suggests a campaign that could be more unpredictable than expected. The PQ has a clearer path in many francophone regions. The PLQ is much stronger in Montréal. The CAQ is trying to rebuild support, especially among older voters. The PCQ remains a factor in the Québec City region. In places like the Montréal suburbs and the capital region, the election could quickly come down to a series of tight three-way races rather than a simple province-wide contest.

The poll also highlights an important distinction: support for the PQ does not automatically mean support for sovereignty. Despite the PQ’s strong electoral position, the Yes side would receive only 31% support in a referendum after the distribution of undecided voters.

The main takeaway is that Québec politics is moving again. The PQ has a real path to power, the PLQ is back in the race, and the CAQ may still have time to reshape the central issue of the campaign before voters make their final choice this fall.