A Political Collapse in Real Time

Just as the Québec Liberal Party (PLQ) seemed to be slowly clawing its way back after years in political purgatory, everything unraveled in a single, chaotic week. What ensued has become one of the most spectacular internal meltdowns that Québec politics has seen in years—and it’s far from over.

The saga began when parliamentary leader Marwah Rizqy abruptly fired her chief of staff, Geneviève Hinse—a close ally of party leader Pablo Rodriguez and a former federal Liberal Party staffer. Rodriguez was neither warned nor given any explanation for the sacking. When Rizqy later showed up at his office with a lawyer, Rodriguez responded by suspending her from caucus—only to formally expel her a mere two weeks later. To this day, the exact allegations levelled against Hinse remain unknown. Legal threats and lawsuits are now flying in every direction.

On the heels of this damning scandal came the second shockwave. The Journal de Montréal published text exchanges suggesting that individuals were handing out “brownies”—$100 payments—to party members who intended to vote for Rodriguez in the leadership race. While technically legal under current rules, the practice raised immediate ethical red flags and revived dark memories of when allegations of corruption and illegal fundraising badly damaged the PLQ’s reputation in the 2000s. The CAQ government responded swiftly by introducing legislation to outlaw such tactics.

Since that damaging week for the PLQ, their fortunes have not improved. Rodriguez expelled another MNA from caucus after she became the subject of an investigation by the Chief Electoral Officer. Meanwhile, media reports revealed that about a dozen donors who gave $500 to Rodriguez’s leadership campaign later received $1,000 payments. Unsurprisingly, the PLQ itself is now under investigation by the province’s permanent anti-corruption unit (UPAC).

It is increasingly difficult to see how Rodriguez can politically survive the storm of controversy that no one saw coming just a month ago. The question is now openly being asked: will Liberals mobilize in January to force a leadership vote?

This dramatic collapse, combined with François Legault’s persistent unpopularity, has directly benefited the Parti Québécois, now polling at 39%. On paper, everything appears to be leaning in the PQ’s favor. But its leader, Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon, may be undermining that momentum himself. His recent aggressive attack on Québec’s artistic community—after it cordially congratulated the new federal Minister of Culture on his appointment—prompted public backlash and a forced apology. These emotional, knee-jerk reactions by St-Pierre-Plamondon risk branding him with an impulsive reputation that could ultimately cost him the broad coalition he needs to clinch victory next October.

As for the CAQ, it remains stuck in a rut spinning its wheels, despite repeated attempts to engineer a right-leaning shift to gain traction. Behind closed doors, some unnamed MNAs are reportedly encouraging Legault to reconsider his political future. For now, the Premier insists he will be the party flagbearer in2026—but as demonstrated in Ottawa just last year, tectonic political plates can rapidly shift.

Would anyone today be willing to bet a “brownie” that the 2026 election will collectively feature François Legault, Pablo Rodriguez, and Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon as party leaders? In Québec politics, nothing is certain.