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David Boudeweel-Lefebvre

Towards a three-way race in Québec?

Halfway through the second Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government, led by François Legault, the electoral situation in Québec is beginning to take shape, despite a notable lack of recent polls. The provincial election is scheduled for early October 2026, and while it still seems a long way off, current political dynamics deserve attention.


According to the few polls available, the Parti Québécois (PQ) currently leads in voting intentions with around 30% support. This is a significant comeback for a party that, just a few years ago, was struggling to maintain a solid electoral base. The CAQ follows in second place with around 25%, a notable drop from the 2022 election, when it triumphed with a comfortable majority.


As for the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ), it remains in third place, just under 20%, a historically low level for a party that once dominated the Québec political scene. However, it's important to note that the PLQ will begin its race for a new leader in early 2025. This leadership contest, once underway, should revitalize the party and help the polls better reflect real voting intentions.


The arrival of Pablo Rodriguez from the ranks of the federal Liberals has renewed interest in this leadership race. A well-known figure on the Canadian political scene, Rodriguez brings a new dynamic to the PLQ and is already sparking speculation about the direction the party could take under his leadership.


As for the other parties, Québec solidaire (QS), on the left of the political spectrum, currently appears to be in search of new directions. Unable to capitalize on the weaknesses of the other parties, it is faced with an urgent need for strategic renewal. At the other end of the spectrum, the Québec Conservative Party (PCQ), positioned further to the right, is struggling to make inroads on the provincial scene. Consigned to fifth place, it has failed to rally many voters beyond its conservative base.


Although the 2026 election is still some way off, many observers believe that a three-way duel could emerge between now and then. The PLQ could win back lost ridings, particularly in the regions west of Montreal, while the Parti Québécois seems capable of once again becoming the first choice of French-speaking voters. The CAQ, for its part, will have to reinvent itself and avoid the appearance of a tired government. To hope for a third mandate, it will undoubtedly have to reshuffle its cabinet and recruit new candidates who can embody renewal. This renewal strategy will be essential to show that the CAQ can still offer a modern and relevant political vision for Québec.

In short, the electoral situation in Québec is still in gestation. However, the coming months, particularly with the election of a new Liberal leader and the probable reorganization of the CAQ, could shuffle the deck and offer a compelling political landscape between now and 2026.

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