Québec set to play a pivotal role in the federal election

The Canadian federal election on April 28 is fast approaching, and once again, Québec finds itself at the heart of political debate. It is often said that voters in Ontario decide which political party will take power, but it is in Québec where it’s determined whether a government will enjoy a majority or have to manage a minority to enact its agenda. This election campaign appears to perfectly illustrate that reality, as the outcome of the vote in La Belle Province could tip the balance.

Since the start of the campaign, polling numbers have remained relatively stable. However, there has been a gradual decline in support for the Bloc Québécois under Yves-François Blanchet —once a dominant force in several regions. At the same time, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has been gaining ground in voting intentions. The Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives, for their part, are well-positioned to achieve their highest share of the vote in Québec since the 2004 merger of two centre-right parties. Still, they would need significantly more support to hope to surpass the 15-seat mark in Québec and limit Liberal gains.

Throughout the campaign, the main issues have revolved around economic relations with the United States, leaving little room for smaller parties and leaders who are not vying for power. In this context, the two-way race between the Liberal and Conservative parties is also playing out in Québec. The Bloc has been losing support—sometimes to the Conservatives, sometimes to the Liberals. This trend suggests that the final result could reflect a certain disillusionment with the sovereigntist option in favor of greater political stability. Meanwhile, the NDP has been entirely absent from the landscape. Leader Jagmeet Singh’s apparent inability to grasp the concept of provincial jurisdiction has been poorly received in Québec, and is pushing the party toward near-extinction in the province.

With ten days to go before the vote, the final outcome remains far from certain. As the polls tighten, a key question for many Québec voters may be whether they wish to grant the Liberal Party a majority or rein in its ambitions with a minority. It is worth noting that this election has been largely focused on foreign economic policy—an unusual emphasis in recent political history.

This focus on international economics seems to have benefited the two major parties, reinforcing the idea that Québec, more than ever, could play a decisive role in shaping the next federal government. It remains to be seen, on the night of April 28, whether this campaign will confirm a desire for change or, conversely, a preference for continuity—both in Québec and across the country.