Québec Election 2026 : Week 2 Recap

After a fast-paced start, Québec’s election campaign appears to be settling into a more predictable rhythm. However, it would be wrong to suggest that nothing has changed in the last week.

Little movement in voting intentions

Reflecting a relatively quiet second week, recent polls show very minor shifts in voting intentions among Quebecers. While the PQ remains in the lead, the CAQ’s comeback appears to have reached a ceiling. The latest poll placed the PQ at 29%, followed by the CAQ at 23%, the PLQ at 22%, the PCQ at 15%, and QS at 10%.

Counter-tariffs: Christine Fréchette temporarily suspends her campaign

On the eve of Canadian retaliatory measures taking effect in response to the latest U.S. tariff offensive, Fréchette chose to put her Premier’s hat back on and convene a special cabinet meeting. Among the measures announced by her government was a decision to exclude U.S. companies from certain public procurement processes to signal stronger support for Québec businesses affected by the crisis.

The PQ faces the Trump challenge

From Canada’s tariff retaliation to his recent threat against Bombardier, Donald Trump continues to insert himself in Québec’s election campaign. The PQ, however, is struggling to find the right response. After first challenging the CAQ on economic security, then attempting to contrast its message of ‘hope’ with what it portrayed as the CAQ’s politics of anxiety, the party is now trying a different approach: downplaying the U.S. President’s statements. The PQ leader even expressed frustration with journalists’ use of the term “trade war,” preferring instead to describe the situation as a “simple trade dispute.”

Federal interference in the campaign?

The day after a town hall during which Christine Fréchette answered questions in real time from citizens, the Journal de Montréal revealed that the CAQ had retained an organization dedicated to promoting Canadian federalism to organize the event. The PQ quickly jumped on the story, comparing it to the Option Canada scandal and describing it as the most significant case of federal interference in Québec since 1995.

Post-election speculation begins

The campaign has not even reached its halfway point, yet politicians—pressed by journalists—are already being asked to look ahead to what could happen after election day. Just recently, the Liberal leader firmly ruled out forming a coalition government with the CAQ to block a PQ minority. By contrast, the PQ leader pledged to hold a referendum if elected, regardless of whether he leads a majority or minority government after Donald Trump’s departure from the White House in 2029.

Key campaign promises of the week

• PQ : Pledged to make a list of Québec literary classics mandatory reading in schools, while also investing $1.3 billion over four years in home care. The party also promised to refund the QST for first-time home buyers, up to $45,000.

• CAQ : Made three pledges: to reduce regulatory requirements to accelerate residential construction, rethink how public infrastructure projects are delivered in order to speed them up, and introduce a roadmap for reform of the forestry regime.

• PLQ : The Liberal leader promised to add 1,000 specialized resources in schools and committed to investing $195 billion in the next Québec Infrastructure Plan, which sets out planned public infrastructure investments.

• PCQ: Duhaime promised families a $100 annual rebate to encourage participation in sports, as well as a $100 weekly allowance for parents who keep their children at home instead of in daycare.

• QS : Pledged to raise the minimum wage to $20 an hour, while also promising electoral reform and calling on the other parties to make the same commitment.

Missteps of the week

• CAQ : Premier Christine Fréchette awkwardly tried to draw comparisons between her PQ opponent and the U.S. President, arguing that both are seeking to destabilize Canada.

• PLQ : As part of a feature, La Presse was granted access to the war rooms of all the major political parties—except the PLQ’s—prompting criticism from several observers. The move resulted in unwelcome and unflattering publicity for Charles Milliard and his team.

  
  

Week Two Verdict

Best week: The PQ, which appears to be maintaining its lead in voting intentions despite the turbulence created by the Trump administration.

Struggling: The PLQ, which continues to struggle to make its themes resonate and find its place in a campaign largely dominated by the CAQ-PQ duel.

What to watch for: The CAQ, whose strategy focused on the tariff war, helped bring it back into contention, but now seems to have plateaued in terms of voting intentions. The question now is whether Christine Fréchette can regain momentum or whether the CAQ has reached its ceiling.